New USCIS Data Shows Employment-Based Green Cards Are Taking Longer and Denials Are Rising

📢 The latest data confirms what many employment-based applicants and employers are already feeling: the U.S. immigration system is under serious strain.

A new report from the American Immigration Council, published on August 18, 2026, examines quarterly U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) data from FY2016 through FY2025.

The report, From Petition to Permanent Residence: A Decade of USCIS Filing, Processing, and Backlog Trends, tracks the employment-based green card process from the initial Form I-140 petition through adjustment of status, work authorization, and visa availability.

Its findings show a process marked by:

• Record-high employment-based green card backlogs
• Longer I-140 processing times
• Higher denial rates in several important categories
• Growing delays for work authorization
• A serious bottleneck involving available immigrant visa numbers

For professionals and employers, the message is clear: you may need to plan for a longer, more complicated, and less predictable path to permanent residence.

What has happened to the I-140 backlog?

Form I-140 is the immigrant petition used by many employers and workers seeking employment-based permanent residence. Depending on the category, the petition may be filed by an employer or by the worker directly, as with certain EB-1A extraordinary ability and EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) cases.

According to the American Immigration Council report, pending I-140 petitions increased dramatically:

• FY2016 Q1: 43,509 pending petitions
• FY2025 Q4: 180,439 pending petitions

That means the backlog more than quadrupled in roughly a decade, reaching the highest level recorded during the period studied.

The trend is not simply the result of one unusually busy quarter. Since FY2023 Q3, USCIS processed fewer I-140 petitions than it received in every quarter through the end of FY2025. When new filings consistently exceed completed cases, the pending inventory grows.

What does this mean for you?

If your petition is waiting for review, you may face a longer period before USCIS issues an approval, denial, or request for additional evidence.

For employers, this can affect:

• Workforce planning
• Promotion and retention decisions
• Relocation and international assignment planning
• Employees’ ability to move forward with green card applications
• Long-term recruitment of specialized workers

An approved petition does not automatically provide a green card. It is one important step in a longer process.

How long is the I-140 processing time?

The report found that the estimated time needed to clear the pending I-140 inventory more than doubled:

• FY2016 Q1: Approximately 5 months
• FY2025 Q3: A record 12.3 months

This is a backlog clearance measure, not a guarantee of how long an individual case will take. Your actual I-140 processing time can vary based on the category, service center, filing type, requests for evidence, and whether premium processing is available and properly requested.

Still, the broader trend matters. USCIS is taking longer to keep up with employment-based petition demand, and the backlog may continue to grow if receipts remain higher than completions.

You can review USCIS’s current estimates through the agency’s official processing times tool, but posted estimates should be treated as general guidance rather than a promise.

Are I-140 denial rates increasing?

Yes. The report found that the overall I-140 denial rate rose substantially:

• FY2016 Q1: 6.6%
• FY2025 Q3 peak: 16.5%

At the peak, approximately one in six I-140 petitions was denied.

A higher denial rate does not mean that every well-prepared case is likely to fail. It does mean that applicants and employers should not treat the filing as a routine paperwork exercise. USCIS may closely examine whether the evidence actually proves that the worker meets the legal requirements for the requested category.

A denial can cause more than disappointment. It may also result in:

• Lost filing fees
• Delayed green card planning
• Disruption to an employee’s immigration strategy
• Missed opportunities tied to visa availability
• Additional legal and recruitment costs

Why is EB-2 now the largest source of the backlog?

By FY2025 Q4, EB-2 petitions made up 46.9% of all pending I-140 cases, overtaking EB-3 as the largest source of the backlog.

This increase was driven in large part by growth in EB-2 NIW filings. National Interest Waiver filings nearly tripled between FY2022 and FY2025.

An EB-2 NIW can allow a qualified professional to seek a green card without employer sponsorship if the person can show that waiving the usual job offer and labor certification requirements would benefit the United States. However, the NIW is not a general option for anyone with an advanced degree or an important job.

You generally need strong evidence addressing all parts of the NIW standard, including:

• The importance of your proposed work
• Your ability to advance that work
• Why waiving the job offer and labor certification requirements benefits the United States

Badmus & Associates provides more information about this pathway on our National Interest Waiver page.

What is the current NIW and EB-1A denial rate?

The report’s findings are particularly concerning for applicants pursuing an EB-2 NIW or EB-1A extraordinary ability petition.

By FY2025 Q4:

• Nearly two-thirds of EB-2 NIW petitions were denied
• Nearly half of EB-1A petitions were denied
• Denial rates for both categories almost doubled during FY2025

These numbers should not be used to predict the outcome of a specific case. USCIS denial data includes a wide range of filings, and individual results depend on the facts and evidence presented.

However, the rising NIW denial rate and EB-1A denial rate send an important practical message: eligibility should be evaluated honestly before filing, and the petition should be supported by organized, specific, and persuasive evidence.

A résumé, degree, job title, or generalized claim that your work is valuable may not be enough. The petition should explain the full story and connect the evidence to the legal requirements.

Can an approved I-140 still leave you waiting?

Yes. Even after USCIS approves an I-140, you may still need to wait for an immigrant visa number to become available.

The American Immigration Council found that the number of beneficiaries with approved I-140 petitions waiting for visa numbers increased:

• FY2023 Q2: 557,041
• FY2025 Q4: 642,226

That represents a 15.3% increase.

Nearly two-thirds of these beneficiaries were in the EB-2 category, and people born in India accounted for 73.4% of the total in FY2025 Q4.

This is the difference between the USCIS petition backlog and the separate visa-number backlog managed through the employment-based preference system. An I-140 approval establishes eligibility for an immigrant category, but it does not guarantee that a green card number is immediately available.

Your chargeability country, employment-based category, priority date, and the monthly Visa Bulletin can all affect your green card wait time.

Are work authorization and I-485 applications also delayed?

Yes. Delays extend beyond the I-140 stage.

During FY2025, pending Form I-765 applications for adjustment-of-status applicants more than doubled. The estimated time needed to clear that backlog increased from:

• 2.7 months
• To 10.2 months

That can create serious problems for people relying on an employment authorization document, commonly called an EAD, while waiting for their green card application.

Form I-485 processing also remains difficult. Although clearance times improved after reaching a pandemic-era peak of 42.1 months in FY2021 Q2, they climbed back to approximately 17 months throughout FY2025.

The report also found that the average I-485 denial rate during the first three quarters of the second Trump administration was 11.8%, compared with a decade-long average of 8.0%.

For you, this means the entire process: not just the I-140: requires careful planning.

Is premium processing worth considering?

Premium processing became a major part of the employment-based immigration system in FY2025.

Approximately 44% of I-140 filings requested concurrent premium processing. USCIS collected an estimated $300 million in premium processing fees during the year.

Premium processing may provide a faster decision on an eligible petition, but it does not:

• Guarantee approval
• Create visa-number availability
• Speed up every stage of the green card process
• Eliminate the possibility of a request for evidence
• Resolve a country-specific priority-date backlog

It may still be useful when you need an earlier decision for workforce planning or immigration strategy. The decision should be based on your goals, category, budget, and the risks of moving forward quickly.

What should employers and professionals do now?

The report does not mean that employment-based immigration is unavailable. It means that waiting passively is increasingly risky.

Consider these steps:

1. Start earlier. Build an immigration timeline that accounts for petition processing, visa availability, adjustment of status, work authorization, and possible requests for evidence.
2. File a complete petition. Strong cases should clearly explain eligibility and include evidence that is relevant, current, and organized.
3. Evaluate category options carefully. EB-1A or EB-2 NIW may be valuable alternatives, but rising denial rates make honest case assessment especially important.
4. Consider premium processing strategically. A faster decision may help with planning, but it does not shorten the entire green card wait time.
5. Monitor your priority date. Visa-number availability can become the controlling issue even after I-140 approval.
6. Prepare for employment authorization delays. Professionals and employers should discuss work authorization expiration dates and contingency plans well in advance.
7. Work with experienced counsel. Immigration strategy should account for both the legal requirements and the practical impact of delays on your career or business.

What is the bigger picture?

The American Immigration Council’s report shows a system where demand, processing capacity, adjudication risk, and visa-number limits are all affecting the path from petition to permanent residence.

For professionals, the result may be years of uncertainty about employment, travel, work authorization, and family planning. For employers, delays can make it harder to retain valuable workers and maintain predictable staffing plans.

The data confirms what applicants are feeling: longer waits and higher scrutiny are already part of the employment-based immigration landscape in 2026.

We will continue to monitor USCIS backlog trends, visa availability, and policy developments so you can stay informed and make decisions with better information.

This article is for general information only and is not legal advice. Immigration outcomes depend on the facts of each case, and government data and processing times can change.

If you are considering an EB-2 NIW, EB-1A extraordinary ability petition, employer-sponsored green card, or another employment-based immigration strategy, contact Badmus & Associates to discuss your options.

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