Green Card Approval Rates Are Shifting: What Five Years of USCIS I-140 Data Shows About EB-1A, NIW, and Employer-Sponsored Cases

📢 USCIS’s latest employment-based petition data show a striking split: EB-1A approvals fell to 32.2% in FY2026 Q3, while EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) approvals climbed to 55.3%. Employer-filed EB-1B and EB-1C cases remained above 90%.

These figures can help you understand the changing adjudication landscape. But they are not a prediction of what will happen in your case.

How should you read these rates?

A “denial rate” in this article means denials divided by approvals plus denials among cases USCIS decided during that period. It is not denials as a share of petitions filed, and it is not a forecast of an individual petition’s chances.

The timing matters, too. A case decided in a quarter may have been filed months or years earlier. These figures describe USCIS’s decisions during a period, not the odds for a new petition filed today.

USCIS publishes the underlying data in its Immigration and Citizenship Data library. The FY2026 Q3 I-140 file was released in September 2026 and covers April 1 through June 30, 2026. Approval rates below are calculated from USCIS approval and denial counts. USCIS has not explained the trends; any interpretation is an inference, not an official agency explanation.

What changed in EB-1A approval rates?

The EB-1A (extraordinary ability) trend is the clearest warning in the data:

That is six consecutive quarterly declines, from FY2025 Q1 through FY2026 Q3. In the latest quarter, USCIS approved 1,348 EB-1A petitions and denied 2,832. More than two denials for every approval.

The change was not simply fewer decisions. USCIS decided 4,318 EB-1A cases in FY2025 Q1 and 4,180 in FY2026 Q3, a roughly similar volume. Across those quarters, approvals fell about 58%, while denials rose about 160%.

Other figures show pressure on the category:

• The pending EB-1A queue grew from 13,526 at the end of FY2025 Q1 to 28,874 at the end of FY2026 Q3.
• Quarterly receipts fell about 18%, from 7,370 to 6,036, over that comparison.

Fewer receipts alongside fewer approvals do not, by themselves, explain the cause. They do show that declining approvals cannot be described simply as the result of a surge in new filings.

Is NIW following the same pattern?

No. NIW approval rates fell sharply through FY2025, then recovered for three consecutive quarters:

The FY2022 rate reflects a relatively small filing pool, so it is not necessarily a useful comparison with later years. In FY2026 Q3, USCIS approved 3,835 NIW petitions and denied 3,103 out of 6,938 decisions. That quarter’s NIW approval rate was about 23 percentage points higher than EB-1A’s.

Across FY2026 Q1–Q3 combined, NIW approval was 49.1%. That year-to-date figure is lower than Q3 alone because it includes the earlier, lower-rate quarters.

The pending NIW queue reached 96,297 at the end of FY2026 Q3, up from 56,611 seven quarters earlier. Quarterly receipts fell about 31%, from 20,141 to 13,831. USCIS has not said why NIW outcomes have recently improved while EB-1A outcomes have worsened.

How do employer-sponsored cases compare?

In FY2026 Q3, employer-filed categories had higher approval rates:

• EB-1B (outstanding professor or researcher): 93.0%-1,408 approvals and 106 denials.
• EB-1C (multinational executive or manager): 97.4%-3,658 approvals and 96 denials.

For broader preference-level categories, the denial share of decisions also varies. EB-1 rose from 14.7% in FY2023 to 27.0% in FY2026 Q3. EB-2 moved from 7.2% in FY2022 to 17.5% in FY2025, then to 4.1% in FY2026 Q3. EB-3 denial shares remained comparatively low, roughly 1% to 3.5% across the period.

These broader figures cover different case mixes and should not be treated as direct odds for an EB-1A or NIW petition. Separately, USCIS reported a 91.0% approval rate for completed “O” classification petitions from October 2025 through June 2026. That figure combines O-1 and O-2 petitions, is not a green-card approval rate, and does not predict EB-1A results.

What might explain the EB-1A decline?

Inference, not an official USCIS explanation: The divergence suggests the EB-1A decline may be specific to that self-petition category rather than a general increase in denials across employment-based immigration. In the latest quarter, employer-screened EB-1B and EB-1C cases remained above 90%, and EB-1A decision volume was roughly flat as its outcome mix shifted toward denials.

EB-1A has a demanding standard: the applicant must show they are among the “small percentage who have risen to the very top” of their field. The regulation lists evidentiary criteria, but meeting at least three does not alone establish eligibility. Under the two-step approach described in the USCIS Policy Manual, officers also assess the record as a whole in a final merits determination.

One recent example illustrates that distinction. In an August 27, 2026, non-precedent decision, the Administrative Appeals Office dismissed a classical composer’s appeal after finding that, although three criteria were met, the overall record did not establish top-of-field standing. The decision cited a lack of context comparing the composer with other renowned composers. A non-precedent decision is not a binding rule for every case, but it shows why a checklist-only approach can be risky.

A federal district court questioned the two-step framework in Mukherji v. Miller in January 2026. The government later withdrew its appeal; the Eighth Circuit issued no merits opinion, and the withdrawal did not create a nationwide change in USCIS policy.

Did the new evidence policy affect FY2026 Q3?

No. USCIS Policy Alert PA-2026-05 took effect on August 5, 2026, after FY2026 Q3 ended on June 30. Its effects, if any, may first appear in FY2026 Q4 data, which covers July through September.

Under the alert, officers may deny some cases for missing required initial evidence without first issuing a request for evidence (RFE) or notice of intent to deny (NOID). USCIS does not have to give the maximum 12-week RFE response period; practitioners report some shorter deadlines, including around 30 days. The alert also removes the former additional 14 days for notices mailed abroad. Check the deadline on your actual notice; it controls.

PA-2026-05 is under legal challenge, but until a court intervenes, applicants should plan around the policy as written. You can read the USCIS alert for details.

What should you consider when comparing routes?

The numbers do not close the door on EB-1A: USCIS approved 1,348 petitions in Q3 alone. But they reinforce the importance of building a complete, persuasive record from the start. Consider presenting evidence that addresses the whole-record standard, not only the number of criteria checked. Where relevant, use reliable field benchmarks, explain the significance of your achievements, and support expert letters with verifiable documentation. Independent perspectives can help, but letters should explain the writer’s expertise and relationship to your work.

The initial filing also matters under PA-2026-05. Review the evidence requirements and Form I-140 instructions carefully, and do not assume an RFE will provide a chance to fill important gaps later.

Route selection involves more than approval rates:

• EB-2 NIW: FY2026 Q3 approval was 55.3%, but USCIS had 96,297 NIW cases pending. A rough calculation at the Q3 decision pace equals about 42 months of decisions; this is queue arithmetic, not a USCIS wait-time estimate. The October 2026 Visa Bulletin also lists an EB-2 Rest of World final action date of January 1, 2025.
• EB-1A: Q3 approval was 32.2%, with 28,874 cases pending. EB-1 is current for Rest of World in the October 2026 Final Action Dates chart. India and China have EB-1 dates of February 1, 2023, and July 1, 2023, respectively. Years ahead of EB-2 India’s November 1, 2013 date.
• Parallel planning: Some candidates may qualify for more than one category. NIW and EB-1A petitions are evaluated independently; multiple filings do not guarantee approval. A PERM-based EB-2 or EB-3 route may also be worth evaluating with an employer.

The O-category data may be relevant to temporary-status planning, but O-1 approval is not a green card approval and does not guarantee EB-1A eligibility. NIW applicants should also understand that court review of discretionary NIW denials can be limited; Poursina v. USCIS and Barman v. USA address jurisdictional issues in the Ninth Circuit.

What is the bigger picture, and what should you do next?

The key takeaway is not that one route is universally “better.” It is that outcomes differ by category, the rules and visa availability matter, and population-level rates cannot tell you how USCIS will assess your evidence.

If you are comparing EB-1A, NIW, or an employer-sponsored option, review your record, timing, country of chargeability, and backup plans with qualified immigration counsel. Contact Badmus & Associates or schedule a case evaluation to discuss your circumstances.

We update these numbers as USCIS releases new data. FY2026 Q4 will be the first file covering a period that includes approximately eight weeks under PA-2026-05. We’ll publish an update when that data is available.

This article provides general information, not legal advice. Approval and denial rates are historical statistics, not personal forecasts. Your eligibility and options depend on the specific facts of your case. See our disclaimer.

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